If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal.
-- Unknown
In the Hamptons, D.A. Spota, who holds the most powerful elected position in Suffolk County, will be re-elected along with a host of other candidates who were cross endorsed. This leaves only the Southampton Town Supervisor race as one of the few obvious, contested elections. While a few of the Town Board slots are in question, only the Supervisor race -- and that of Highway Superintendent are important. Alex Gregor, a strong local candidate wants to take over that sensitive, contract-laden post of Highway Superintendant in Southampton. All should support his run for good government.
Prior to this, that job was a huge source of largesse via political contributions.
Anna Throne-Holst is vying for the incumbent’s job as Supervisor, currently held by Linda Kabot.
The election melodrama has a long history with players from several political directions.
But, essentially, the Republican Party has had a lock on Suffolk County (where the Hamptons are located) for the last several decades. Although interrupted briefly, Republican conservatism has been the area’s moral (in theory) and political structure.
While “Skip” Heaney, the former Southampton Supervisor who now works for the County Executive, was a Republican – he was defeated by Linda Kabot (also a Republican) in a vicious Primary fight two years ago. Heaney did not take this lightly and there have been reports that he has not so surreptitiously thrown his support to Throne-Holst: the theory being, better to support the enemy of your real enemy, than your political adversary.
To complicate matters, the current Supervisor Linda Kabot was charged with a D.W.I. and arrested in September. She is not only fighting the legal battle but the “moral” battle in front of the voters.
How this will play out is anyone’s guess.
Political gamblers have their bets on Throne-Holst who seems to have had the good sense to not attack Kabot and is riding the coat-tails of the Democratic resurgence. While the support of Heaney and his grip on some Republican stalwarts may be a double-edge sword that will help Throne-Holst now (since the voters had rejected him for Kabot), it remains to be seen how this will play out later. It could backfire on Throne-Holst in the next election if she wins this time. Both Malone and Nuzzi are supported by Heaney and the traditional Republicans and the objective is clear. One is reminded how DePirro had relied on Fred Thiele in her Democratic administration.
Kabot’s D.W.I. issue is not at all uncommon in the Hamptons during the winter. Bus service, car services and designated drivers are about as common and available as are jobs these days. Now that – cash and jobs – is the real issue. No matter who wins. There seems to be some serious denial about where all of this Great Recession is going. We are only in the eye of this financial storm right now.
The only issue that seems to be relevant in Southampton is the budget and the missing Town money (anywhere from $8 million to $20 million depending on which report you read) – and that seems to have predated both Throne-Holst and Kabot.
Monday, November 02, 2009
Monday, September 14, 2009
Faux Pas in the Hamptons
You can observe a lot just by watching.
-- Yogi Berra (1925 - ), Berra's Law
After the screaming died down and the blogs and websites vented their bile over the DWI arrest of Town of Southampton Supervisor this past week, some reality has set in. DWI’s are a longstanding problem on the East End and also affect the restaurant business in the mini-Depression that we are all enduring. Bars and restaurants would wind up closing even earlier in the season if one could not stop in and have a couple of drinks after work. This does not make is smart or right to ever get behind the wheel while impaired – regardless of whether you are under the legal limit. It is one of the biggest problems in a suburban or rural area, such as the Hamptons, where transportation (both public and private) is an issue.
Fortunately, Kabot did not hit a pedestrian, do any property damage, or hurt herself. Having said that, she deserves her day in court – not to be tried in the court of public opinion – and, the opportunity to address the mistake no matter how it plays out. She’s already paid a price.
Of course, this was a gift to the Republican Party because she has had the gall to run against the machine and win in the previous Primary against Skip Heaney two years ago and went on the win the Supervisorship in the last General Election. The threatened Primary between Kabot and Maloney this year was called off because the Party knew she would win and essentially, by their actions, threw the race to Democrat Anna Throne-Holst by pulling a few party lines out from under Kabot. That’s politics. Holst is a good candidate and would benefit the Town. But, that isn’t the point.
Essentially, the lesson to be learned here is that making a stupid or dangerous decision -- is simply that. If you have a high profile it WILL be used against you. If you have friends in town, as in the past, coverage will never get published. If the ruling clique is after your ass, they will spread as much unsubstantiated dirt as they can against you. Linda is popular and she’s one of the people. Time will tell if they see through the smear and support her in spite of her mistake.
-- Yogi Berra (1925 - ), Berra's Law
After the screaming died down and the blogs and websites vented their bile over the DWI arrest of Town of Southampton Supervisor this past week, some reality has set in. DWI’s are a longstanding problem on the East End and also affect the restaurant business in the mini-Depression that we are all enduring. Bars and restaurants would wind up closing even earlier in the season if one could not stop in and have a couple of drinks after work. This does not make is smart or right to ever get behind the wheel while impaired – regardless of whether you are under the legal limit. It is one of the biggest problems in a suburban or rural area, such as the Hamptons, where transportation (both public and private) is an issue.
Fortunately, Kabot did not hit a pedestrian, do any property damage, or hurt herself. Having said that, she deserves her day in court – not to be tried in the court of public opinion – and, the opportunity to address the mistake no matter how it plays out. She’s already paid a price.
Of course, this was a gift to the Republican Party because she has had the gall to run against the machine and win in the previous Primary against Skip Heaney two years ago and went on the win the Supervisorship in the last General Election. The threatened Primary between Kabot and Maloney this year was called off because the Party knew she would win and essentially, by their actions, threw the race to Democrat Anna Throne-Holst by pulling a few party lines out from under Kabot. That’s politics. Holst is a good candidate and would benefit the Town. But, that isn’t the point.
Essentially, the lesson to be learned here is that making a stupid or dangerous decision -- is simply that. If you have a high profile it WILL be used against you. If you have friends in town, as in the past, coverage will never get published. If the ruling clique is after your ass, they will spread as much unsubstantiated dirt as they can against you. Linda is popular and she’s one of the people. Time will tell if they see through the smear and support her in spite of her mistake.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Summer in the Hamptons
Illusion is the first of all pleasures.
Oscar Wilde.
This turned out to be the summer that never happened in the Hamptons. Between the rain, cool temperatures and lowered expectations, many local businesses that do not serve alcohol suffered. Even restaurants suffered. Beaches were often empty. At times, it was actually quite pleasant not to be buzzed by Porches and Bentley’s trying to find a parking spot at Roger’s Pavilion in Westhampton Beach.
The Real Estate industry continued to contract and several brokers closed-up shop. Estimates of total price drops hover between 35% and 50% from their 2006/2007 highs and the main selling areas are now in the under $500,000 range. While there are sales in the million-dollar territory, price reductions and hard bargaining are now the norm since mortgage money in that category is difficult to obtain. While there are actually some new no-income verification loans available, generally a 30% deposit is required.
There are many differing opinions on when the market will return to some semblance or normality, but right now properties languish on the market for up to two years if they are not priced aggressively – translated: take a beating or sit with an unsold home.
East Hampton has done better in terms of rentals and sales and Southampton has had the biggest drop in activity. This summer, renters started out by offering owners 50% off the listed price. Buyers have brutalized brokers as well as sellers – often walking away after they got their price. Despite this, one $25 million dollar mansion rented for half a million dollars for the month of August only.
Nevertheless, the shake-out will net fewer real estate brokers, fewer rental units and fewer businesses to service them by next summer. Let’s just say that it was not a summer to be in the lawn sprinkler business.
Oscar Wilde.
This turned out to be the summer that never happened in the Hamptons. Between the rain, cool temperatures and lowered expectations, many local businesses that do not serve alcohol suffered. Even restaurants suffered. Beaches were often empty. At times, it was actually quite pleasant not to be buzzed by Porches and Bentley’s trying to find a parking spot at Roger’s Pavilion in Westhampton Beach.
The Real Estate industry continued to contract and several brokers closed-up shop. Estimates of total price drops hover between 35% and 50% from their 2006/2007 highs and the main selling areas are now in the under $500,000 range. While there are sales in the million-dollar territory, price reductions and hard bargaining are now the norm since mortgage money in that category is difficult to obtain. While there are actually some new no-income verification loans available, generally a 30% deposit is required.
There are many differing opinions on when the market will return to some semblance or normality, but right now properties languish on the market for up to two years if they are not priced aggressively – translated: take a beating or sit with an unsold home.
East Hampton has done better in terms of rentals and sales and Southampton has had the biggest drop in activity. This summer, renters started out by offering owners 50% off the listed price. Buyers have brutalized brokers as well as sellers – often walking away after they got their price. Despite this, one $25 million dollar mansion rented for half a million dollars for the month of August only.
Nevertheless, the shake-out will net fewer real estate brokers, fewer rental units and fewer businesses to service them by next summer. Let’s just say that it was not a summer to be in the lawn sprinkler business.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
The Double Cross
I once said cynically of a politician, 'He'll doublecross that bridge when he comes to it.'
-- Oscar Levant (1906 - 1972)
The recent news pieces about election time in the Hamptons have evidenced a panoply of sub rosa deals and three-dimensional chess moves. Most of the reports focus upon a Republican deal in which Jim Malone was to have dropped back to run for Town Board instead of challenging Linda Kabot for Supervisor of the Town of Southampton. Current Supervisor Linda Kabot was to have a clear run in November, having apparently made peace with the Republican Party to avoid another Primary contest (she won the last one two years ago against incumbent Skip Heaney). But, apparently, the antagonism among Republicans who supported Heaney has deep strong roots and the deal to have Malone run for a Town Board seat and to step aside for Kabot to take the race to November against Anna Throne-Holst, has blown up.
With the Conservative Party endorsing no one in November for Supervisor, the several lines on the ballot gives an edge to Throne-Holst. Postings on 631politics (http://twinforks.com/ "Conservative Party Tricks") have some blog entries that describe the gory details.
Malone is still running for Town Board but the tacit agreement that the Republicans would support Kabot for re-election has been side-tracked with the removal of support by the Conservative party endorsement.
The tea leaves point to a bait and switch whereby the Republicans would rather hand the election to Throne-Holst for Supervisor this round and place their bets on the contest for Supervisor next time around between Throne-Holst and Malone – than allow Kabot to have another term. Of course, one should not underestimate Kabot’s political acumen or popularity with residents. An internal struggle that would remove Heaney’s grip on the party may now be playing out between Kabot and Heaney forces.
No matter what you think about Skip Heaney, though, he continues to land on his feet and exert his influence over Southampton Town politics.
-- Oscar Levant (1906 - 1972)
The recent news pieces about election time in the Hamptons have evidenced a panoply of sub rosa deals and three-dimensional chess moves. Most of the reports focus upon a Republican deal in which Jim Malone was to have dropped back to run for Town Board instead of challenging Linda Kabot for Supervisor of the Town of Southampton. Current Supervisor Linda Kabot was to have a clear run in November, having apparently made peace with the Republican Party to avoid another Primary contest (she won the last one two years ago against incumbent Skip Heaney). But, apparently, the antagonism among Republicans who supported Heaney has deep strong roots and the deal to have Malone run for a Town Board seat and to step aside for Kabot to take the race to November against Anna Throne-Holst, has blown up.
With the Conservative Party endorsing no one in November for Supervisor, the several lines on the ballot gives an edge to Throne-Holst. Postings on 631politics (http://twinforks.com/ "Conservative Party Tricks") have some blog entries that describe the gory details.
Malone is still running for Town Board but the tacit agreement that the Republicans would support Kabot for re-election has been side-tracked with the removal of support by the Conservative party endorsement.
The tea leaves point to a bait and switch whereby the Republicans would rather hand the election to Throne-Holst for Supervisor this round and place their bets on the contest for Supervisor next time around between Throne-Holst and Malone – than allow Kabot to have another term. Of course, one should not underestimate Kabot’s political acumen or popularity with residents. An internal struggle that would remove Heaney’s grip on the party may now be playing out between Kabot and Heaney forces.
No matter what you think about Skip Heaney, though, he continues to land on his feet and exert his influence over Southampton Town politics.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
The End is Near?
It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours.
-- Harry S Truman (1884 - 1972)
After several years of doom and gloom blogs and articles that point to the potential for devastation in the local economy as well as the national financial health, we are knee-deep in muck and mire. And, it’s not the vaudeville act by that name appearing in the Catskills. Few remember the fact that in 1982, prices for homes in the Hamptons actually dropped. This time around it is much worse.
Real Estate brokers were embarrassed and sellers were stunned in 1982. Now, they are heading for the exits.
It is now more akin to a creeping Depression
– which some think we have already entered. When you factor in falling tax revenues, missing money, increased budget needs, evaporating credit markets and rising unemployment, the picture is getting worse by the week. Given the fact that employment figures are rarely accurate and do not reflect numbers of workers whose benefits have run out and drop-outs who have lost hope, the real unemployment numbers are likely to be closer to 15% than the much-advertised 9.5%.
Many optimists thoughtfully point to the recent stock market rally which in many previous recessions was thought to be a prognosticator of future rebounds. They thought that in 1932 too, after the 1929 drop was “over” and just before the market lost 90% of its value -- in 1933.
And, with the price of oil seemingly stabilized – it, too, is also in a dangerous decline. Comments by some economical professionals have warned of a precipitous drop. It is said that $60 dollar oil is manageable, but that $20 oil
will foment revolution in countries like Russia.
The Hamptons have had their fair share of scandals this summer – from accusations of mortgage fraud to politicians dipping into the Preservation fund – but, nothing compares to what a month of summer rain can do. Pool companies, contractors, real estate agents, landlords, car dealers and purveyors have felt the pain of a double-whammy.
All have suffered from the disappearance of Bear, Sterns and Lehman Brothers bonuses and have experienced what has been an increasing problem – no customers and no cash.
We are about to enter a winter on the East End with no reserves, no cash, no credit and no prospects for nearly a year when the Spring "buying season" arrives. Main Street already has empty stores and the bankruptcies as well as business collapses are just around the corner. Foreclosures on many prime loans are just beginning, as distinguished from subprime products that banks foisted upon borrowers – and commercial real estate is just now heading down.
Independent lenders are predicting that this whole process will take another 3 to 5 years at a minimum. Some say that value in the Hamptons will not return to “normal” until 2020. By next year, the value of property is likely to have dropped by 50% across the board.
This will be the Winter of nearly everyone’s discontent no matter what the upbeat Obama officials tell us.
-- Harry S Truman (1884 - 1972)
After several years of doom and gloom blogs and articles that point to the potential for devastation in the local economy as well as the national financial health, we are knee-deep in muck and mire. And, it’s not the vaudeville act by that name appearing in the Catskills. Few remember the fact that in 1982, prices for homes in the Hamptons actually dropped. This time around it is much worse.
Real Estate brokers were embarrassed and sellers were stunned in 1982. Now, they are heading for the exits.
It is now more akin to a creeping Depression
– which some think we have already entered. When you factor in falling tax revenues, missing money, increased budget needs, evaporating credit markets and rising unemployment, the picture is getting worse by the week. Given the fact that employment figures are rarely accurate and do not reflect numbers of workers whose benefits have run out and drop-outs who have lost hope, the real unemployment numbers are likely to be closer to 15% than the much-advertised 9.5%.
Many optimists thoughtfully point to the recent stock market rally which in many previous recessions was thought to be a prognosticator of future rebounds. They thought that in 1932 too, after the 1929 drop was “over” and just before the market lost 90% of its value -- in 1933.
And, with the price of oil seemingly stabilized – it, too, is also in a dangerous decline. Comments by some economical professionals have warned of a precipitous drop. It is said that $60 dollar oil is manageable, but that $20 oil
will foment revolution in countries like Russia.
The Hamptons have had their fair share of scandals this summer – from accusations of mortgage fraud to politicians dipping into the Preservation fund – but, nothing compares to what a month of summer rain can do. Pool companies, contractors, real estate agents, landlords, car dealers and purveyors have felt the pain of a double-whammy.
All have suffered from the disappearance of Bear, Sterns and Lehman Brothers bonuses and have experienced what has been an increasing problem – no customers and no cash.
We are about to enter a winter on the East End with no reserves, no cash, no credit and no prospects for nearly a year when the Spring "buying season" arrives. Main Street already has empty stores and the bankruptcies as well as business collapses are just around the corner. Foreclosures on many prime loans are just beginning, as distinguished from subprime products that banks foisted upon borrowers – and commercial real estate is just now heading down.
Independent lenders are predicting that this whole process will take another 3 to 5 years at a minimum. Some say that value in the Hamptons will not return to “normal” until 2020. By next year, the value of property is likely to have dropped by 50% across the board.
This will be the Winter of nearly everyone’s discontent no matter what the upbeat Obama officials tell us.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Imagine
If I'd written all the truth I knew for the past ten years, about 600 people - including me - would be rotting in prison cells from Rio to Seattle today. Absolute truth is a very rare and dangerous commodity in the context of professional journalism.
-- Hunter S. Thompson
The people shall not be deprived or abridged of their right to speak, to write, or to publish their sentiments; and the freedom of the press, as one of the great bulwarks of liberty, shall be inviolable.
-- James Madison
Imagine that you are a journalist in a country where the ruling party and its government does not tolerate criticism or a difference of opinion. Or, were you to voice opposition to the government, you would be killed or destroyed – using any means possible. That the focus of the government attacks may be couched in some other mainstream, popular vehicle, permitting vast media resources (including PR and phony leaks) to create an adverse frenzy is merely part of a strategy. Think about reporters waiting for you at every turn, walking around your apartment and offices, asking accusatory questions based upon innuendos and lies to sell tabloids and gain viewers. Almost any excuse can be used by a government to make you, yes you, a criminal to be pursued.
What is widely viewed as legitimate business practices, can, with a twist of focus by a government official, become an illegality.
In Russia, several journalists and human rights advocates have been the focus of convenient, high profile murders that were never solved. Court cases pointed accusatory fingers but juries have acquitted them – as arranged. In Iran, North Korea and other countries, similar actions have caused journalists following important issues to be tried and imprisoned simply for investigating and writing.
For a journalist in America, with financial devastation facing many publications, prospects for the continuation of Free Speech and Freedom of the Press is in severe jeopardy. Even the New York Times is in serious trouble and may be sold within a year. Only bloggers, themselves journalists, have a real handle on many issues and continue to carry the torch for truth, even if biased at times.
A journalist or blogger now must often choose between writing the truth, conveying a sense of the real subtext in his or her political environment or community, and being able to live one’s life unmolested. There is a heavy price to pay for speaking out.
Who will uncover truth in our society if these trends continue and more and more media slip into the mist of history? How will we continue as a Democracy if the forces of the State are allowed to destroy people using whatever means at their disposal?
Imagine that you had a point of view that you were afraid to voice in America. Will we now crucify and destroy those who disagree with us? Is this the new journalistic reality? Is this our future?
If we lose our liberties, there is no end to the slide into totalitarianism and terror.
-- Hunter S. Thompson
The people shall not be deprived or abridged of their right to speak, to write, or to publish their sentiments; and the freedom of the press, as one of the great bulwarks of liberty, shall be inviolable.
-- James Madison
Imagine that you are a journalist in a country where the ruling party and its government does not tolerate criticism or a difference of opinion. Or, were you to voice opposition to the government, you would be killed or destroyed – using any means possible. That the focus of the government attacks may be couched in some other mainstream, popular vehicle, permitting vast media resources (including PR and phony leaks) to create an adverse frenzy is merely part of a strategy. Think about reporters waiting for you at every turn, walking around your apartment and offices, asking accusatory questions based upon innuendos and lies to sell tabloids and gain viewers. Almost any excuse can be used by a government to make you, yes you, a criminal to be pursued.
What is widely viewed as legitimate business practices, can, with a twist of focus by a government official, become an illegality.
In Russia, several journalists and human rights advocates have been the focus of convenient, high profile murders that were never solved. Court cases pointed accusatory fingers but juries have acquitted them – as arranged. In Iran, North Korea and other countries, similar actions have caused journalists following important issues to be tried and imprisoned simply for investigating and writing.
For a journalist in America, with financial devastation facing many publications, prospects for the continuation of Free Speech and Freedom of the Press is in severe jeopardy. Even the New York Times is in serious trouble and may be sold within a year. Only bloggers, themselves journalists, have a real handle on many issues and continue to carry the torch for truth, even if biased at times.
A journalist or blogger now must often choose between writing the truth, conveying a sense of the real subtext in his or her political environment or community, and being able to live one’s life unmolested. There is a heavy price to pay for speaking out.
Who will uncover truth in our society if these trends continue and more and more media slip into the mist of history? How will we continue as a Democracy if the forces of the State are allowed to destroy people using whatever means at their disposal?
Imagine that you had a point of view that you were afraid to voice in America. Will we now crucify and destroy those who disagree with us? Is this the new journalistic reality? Is this our future?
If we lose our liberties, there is no end to the slide into totalitarianism and terror.
Friday, April 03, 2009
The Hamptons Meltdown
I get no respect. The way my luck is running, if I was a politician I would be honest.
-- Rodney Dangerfield
As the politicians and media play out their roles in the recent real estate hysteria in the Hamptons, all eyes are looking away from the mismanagement and incompetence in the face of this financial Armageddon.
General Motors is facing the possibility of bankruptcy, Citigroup is certainly not making Saudi Prince Al-Waleed happy and AIG stumbles along on Federal loans.
Those who have been reading the tealeaves, including financial consultants and media gurus, watch Wall Street galloping away from the true cause of our potential financial demise – the derivatives market. Yes, that’s the $700 Trillion dollar elephant in the room. AIG is only a small element of that giant scheme which wrote insurance on sums that could never have been covered in case of a default.
Of course, that’s more difficult to comprehend and impossible to prosecute. It is an amorphous ride into Hell that makes Dante’s Ninth Circle seem like a trip to the Caribbean. Warren Buffet warned us all many years ago, as he started to unwind counterparty positions, that there was a ticking time bomb in our financial system. Even he has lost billions as a result.
As we consider the non-existent sales market -- auctions, short sales, and foreclosures have grabbed the headlines. But, until there is liquidity and a return to lending, all bets are off. Look for a shrinking of the commercial real estate market, downsizing of almost all businesses and the quiet disappearance of many real estate brokers. Jobs will also be difficult to find, except in the seasonal summer months.
This time around, unlike the crisis which began with the 500 point drop in the Dow in 1987, it is possible that the Great Recession may last anywhere from two to five years longer. Some predict that we will not be out of this until 2020.
-- Rodney Dangerfield
As the politicians and media play out their roles in the recent real estate hysteria in the Hamptons, all eyes are looking away from the mismanagement and incompetence in the face of this financial Armageddon.
General Motors is facing the possibility of bankruptcy, Citigroup is certainly not making Saudi Prince Al-Waleed happy and AIG stumbles along on Federal loans.
Those who have been reading the tealeaves, including financial consultants and media gurus, watch Wall Street galloping away from the true cause of our potential financial demise – the derivatives market. Yes, that’s the $700 Trillion dollar elephant in the room. AIG is only a small element of that giant scheme which wrote insurance on sums that could never have been covered in case of a default.
Of course, that’s more difficult to comprehend and impossible to prosecute. It is an amorphous ride into Hell that makes Dante’s Ninth Circle seem like a trip to the Caribbean. Warren Buffet warned us all many years ago, as he started to unwind counterparty positions, that there was a ticking time bomb in our financial system. Even he has lost billions as a result.
As we consider the non-existent sales market -- auctions, short sales, and foreclosures have grabbed the headlines. But, until there is liquidity and a return to lending, all bets are off. Look for a shrinking of the commercial real estate market, downsizing of almost all businesses and the quiet disappearance of many real estate brokers. Jobs will also be difficult to find, except in the seasonal summer months.
This time around, unlike the crisis which began with the 500 point drop in the Dow in 1987, it is possible that the Great Recession may last anywhere from two to five years longer. Some predict that we will not be out of this until 2020.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
